Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria

Authors

  • Preslav Dimitrov South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Blagoevgrad

Keywords:

Forecasting, exponential smoothing, ecotourism

Abstract

Most of the Bulgarian rural municipalities need to back up their investment decisions in tourism infrastructure by preliminary analysis and forecasts. The present paper regards several major problems in the application of exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting for the needs of the mountainous municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria, such as: (i) the problem of determining the time series pattern; or the so-called “forecast profile”; (ii) the selection of a suitable forecasting method; (iii) Calculating of short-run and long-run forecasts; and (iv) the comparison of the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts. A specially designed model for estimation of the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the rural tourism and ecotourism sectors of this very same municipality, located near Bulgaria’s border with Greece and Turkey, is being presented.

Author Biography

  • Preslav Dimitrov, South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Blagoevgrad
    PhD, Adjunct Professor, ESGHT/University of Algarve Web Manager of the Journal Encontros Científicos - Tourism & Management Studies  Director of the undergraduate Course in Hotelmanagement, ESGHT/University of Algarve

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Published

27.05.2013

Issue

Section

Tourism/Hospitality: Research Papers

How to Cite

Long-run forecasting of the number of the ecotourism arrivals in the municipality of Stambolovo, Bulgaria. (2013). Tourism & Management Studies, 9(1), 41-47. https://www.tmstudies.net/index.php/ectms/article/view/545